The Belgian Cancer Registry has published new cancer incidence projections for Belgium up to the year 2035. The number of new cancer diagnoses is expected to rise from 77,344 in 2023, the most recent year for which data is available, to approximately 93,330 in 2035. This represents an increase of 21%, corresponding increase of approximately 1,300 additional diagnoses per year between 2023 and 2035. In concrete terms, this means that in 2035 there will be 44 more diagnoses than in 2023, each day.
The projected increase in the number of cancer diagnoses by 2035 is highest among men: from 42,140 diagnoses recorded in 2023 to an expected 52,350 diagnoses in 2035, a rise of 24%. For women, a total of 41,000 diagnoses are expected by 2035, an increase of 16% compared to the 35,204 cases in 2023.
Figure: The observed number of cancer diagnoses from 2004 to 2023 (solid line), with projections for the years 2025, 2030 and 2035 (dotted line). The top curve (blue) represents men, and the bottom curve (pink) represents women.
The number of cancer diagnoses in Belgium is broadly determined by three factors: the size of the population, changes in the age structure, and the underlying risk of cancer. When the projections account for the expected growth and ageing of the population, it appears that the overall risk of cancer will rise only slightly between 2023 and 2035, by around 3% for both men and women.
Population growth and the ageing population are therefore the main drivers behind the sharp increase in the number of cancer diagnoses, rather than an increase in the risk of cancer itself.
Results by cancer type
New projections are available for 22 specific types of cancer. Between 2023 and 2035, an increase in the number of diagnoses is expected for almost all types of cancer. The only exceptions are stomach cancer and ovarian cancer. In particular, a sharp relative increase in the number of diagnoses for liver cancer (+53%), pancreatic cancer (+49%) and skin melanomas (+63%) are expected.
Clear differences between men and women are observed for lung cancer and head and neck cancer: the number of diagnoses in men is expected to remain more or less stable until 2035, whilst a sharp rise is anticipated among women (+52% for lung cancer and +33% for head and neck cancer). This is due to a declining risk among men and an increasing risk among women. The fact that women started smoking several decades later than men may partly explain this difference in trend between the sexes. This is in line with the observed opposing changes in lifestyle between genders, with smoking being a key factor.
Publication
These results are based on trends in observed cancer risk between 2004 and 2023 and the Belgian population projections carried out by Statbel and the Federal Planning Bureau. Specific figures by tumour type and the methodology used can be found in the publication: “Cancer Incidence Projections in Belgium, 2024 to 2035”, available on the BCR-website.
